No matter how bad the situation with Damian Lillard looks, and regardless of what the outcome for the Bucks or the Celtics might look like, Milwaukee's decision to trade Jrue Holiday to the Portland Trail Blazers still looks better by the day.
Once again, Holiday's 3-point shooting is dipping in the postseason compared to the regular season. After establishing himself as a two-way force who can play winning basketball on both ends in the regular season, Holiday is looking like a strictly defensive player who can only occasionally score the basketball if a lot of things go right on that end.
In Milwaukee, it was masked because Giannis covered for so much. In Boston, the cracks are starting to show, especially if Tatum or Brown aren’t having nuclear games. It becomes clear that in the playoffs, Holiday can’t be counted on to make shots or consistently create offense.
The truth is that this is just who Jrue Holiday is.
The problems that haunted the Bucks are now plaguing Boston
For all the grief the Milwaukee Bucks have taken since trading Jrue Holiday, the cold truth is this: Boston is learning the same thing Bucks fans knew all too well.
No matter how polished Holiday looks in the regular season — no matter how many deflections he racks up, how well he moves the ball, how rock-solid he seems in every advanced metric — it all leads to the same postseason ceiling. He becomes a defensive specialist who can only help you win if the offense doesn’t ask too much of him.
The Celtics are seeing it in real time.
At this juncture in his basketball journey, Jrue Holiday is primarily a floor-spacer whose shooting and defense allow his younger superstar teammates to thrive in isolation. He's up to four attempts from behind the 3-point line these days, but he's only hitting 31.3 percent of his attempts, a significant dropoff from the 35 percent he shot in the regular season.
Four percentage points can make all the difference in this league. Hitting 31 percent means you can sag off him to clog the paint. Hitting 35 means he's closer to respectable league-average shooting. And considering the pattern that Bucks fans saw years ago, that’s not an off week. That’s a reality. In the playoffs, where possessions slow down and defenses tighten, it’s a problem. You can’t have a starter who teams ignore in the halfcourt, especially not one who often handles the ball.
In Boston, these problems are minimized because Jrue Holiday isn't expected to be a third scoring option like he was in Milwaukee. Why would he be, after all, when he has the Jays, Derrick White and Kristaps Porzingis on the same roster with him?
This roster construction allows Jrue Holiday to do what he does best: pester ball-handlers and be a dominant ball hawk. Jrue Holiday remains a postseason menace on the defensive end. He'll guard anyone. He’ll switch, fight over screens, rotate on time and take on the toughest matchups night after night. No complaints there.
But offensively, his playoff impact keeps shrinking. He becomes hesitant, less aggressive, and when he does get downhill, he struggles to finish. His turnover rate creeps up. His assist-to-turnover ratio slips. And teams stop worrying about him as a floor-spacer, which compresses the court for stars like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown now, just as it once did for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Holiday is a winning player, but he wasn't who Milwaukee thought he was
Now, the Celtics may very well still win their series. They’re deep. They’re versatile. And Holiday’s defense will help. But the deeper they go, the more they’ll need offense in close games. And when Jrue Holiday has the ball in those moments, it’s deja vu for Bucks fans. It's open threes clanking off the rim, dispirited drives that lead nowhere, and noncommittal plays that stall out and fail to create any identifiable advantages on offense.
It’s not an indictment of Jrue Holiday as a player. It’s just what happens, year after year, when you build your playoff hopes around him being more than he is. The Bucks already lived it. The Celtics are living it now. And now they're down 0-2 without a reliable floor-spacer at the point guard position.
Damian Lillard has his issues. He’s older. He’s hurt, and he gets hurt easily. He can’t stay in front of much of anyone. But even in a nightmare season, he gave Milwaukee an offensive explosion night after night. His defense left much to be desired compared to the ball-stopping talent you had with Jrue Holiday.
But in the playoffs, elite three-level scoring is a necessity. You live with the flaws because he can win you games. Holiday, by contrast, needs everything else to be perfect to help his team win.
That’s the real difference. In the postseason, you don’t need perfection. You need weapons. Lillard is still a weapon. Holiday is more of a shield — and one that keeps cracking under pressure as he ages.
Injuries aside, you trade that player for Damian Lillard - the Dame Time that we knew he was at the time, and the player he was for the Bucks at many points this season - nine times out of ten.
The trade hurt. But the decision? Still looks better by the day.
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