Not unlike his contemporaries at the guard spots, Milwaukee Bucks guard Damian Lillard has always exemplified the early 2010s archetype of a one-way superstar whose offensive brilliance comes with a defensive asterisk. He's squarely in that mold with the likes of Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving and, if you're looking for more recent examples, guys like Trae Young, too.
And mind you, that's not the worst thing in the world, as evidenced by the fact that two of those guys will go down in history as NBA Champions. It's possible, but it is what it is for Lillard. For years, his ability to light up the scoreboard with ease has overshadowed his struggles on the other end of the floor. That's a testament to his talent on that end, where he can easily score back the points he gives up. But that was when he was younger and stouter.
That was then, and this is now. As Lillard ages, his defense will naturally begin to drop off. And in the playoffs, where every possession is magnified and weaknesses are ruthlessly exploited, Lillard’s defense (or perhaps lack thereof) could soon become a glaring issue for the Milwaukee Bucks, if it isn't already.
Lillard's team defense has consistently left a lot to be desired
Let’s start with the good news: Lillard isn’t a complete liability on defense. His individual playtype metrics are respectable, especially against pick-and-roll ball-handlers, where he gives up just 0.83 points per possession. That’s better than most guards in the league.
Obviously, the eye test will tell you that Lillard isn't a bad one-on-one defender. And that's true. His strong core and persistence on that end mean that his individual defense isn’t catastrophic (opposing guards shoot just 43 percent with him as the closest defender, and he ranks in the 70th percentile defending pick-and-roll ball-handlers), but his team defense is a completely different story.
But basketball isn’t played in isolation, and Lillard’s team defense is where the problems arise. His lack of size, inconsistent effort, and occasional mental lapses make him a target for opposing offenses, and the Milwaukee Bucks’ defensive scheme hasn’t done him any favors.
The Bucks give up 9.7 more points per 100 possessions when Lillard plays versus when he sits, per PBP Stats, and Cleaning the Glass has him in the 12th percentile in defensive rating for the season. Two things can be true: trading Jrue Holiday for Lillard was the right move, and this defensive hole could haunt the Milwaukee Bucks when it matters most.
When Lillard is on the floor, the Bucks’ defense routinely collapses, whether from missed rotations or a general lack of effort that comes with being a score-first guy at age 34. They’re a net-plus 0.4 with him playing and a net-plus 4.3 when he sits, according to PBP Stats. That’s a significant drop-off, and it proves just how much Lillard’s defensive limitations impact the team. In the playoffs, where every possession is scrutinized, those breakdowns will be magnified.
This shouldn't be a hot take or a new realization at this point: in the playoffs, teams will hunt Lillard relentlessly, as they have for practically his entire career. That's not by virtue of him being a bad defender; it's just the reality of being a small guard in this association. And that only means that whether it’s through multiple screening actions or off-ball movement, opponents will do everything they can to exploit his defensive weaknesses.
The Bucks need to find ways to work around this, and the options are there if head coach Doc Rivers only has the gumption and imagination to try them out (which is a whole other conversation in itself).
That might look like hiding him on non-scoring threats, playing more zone defense, trying harder to go over ball screens at the point of attack, switching less often, or using Giannis Antetokounmpo as a roaming help defender to cover for Damian Lillard’s mistakes.
The addition of Kyle Kuzma, too, should shore up their defense somewhat, as he's proven he has the size and speed to be the defender this Bucks team needs. They could also lean more on their bench, giving players like Andre Jackson Jr. more minutes to provide a defensive spark. Whatever the solution, the Milwaukee Bucks can’t afford to ignore the problem.
Damian Lillard’s defensive struggles are nothing new, but they could become a major issue for the Bucks once playoff time rolls around. While his individual defense is passable, his team defense is a liability, and opponents will exploit it when it matters most.
The Milwaukee Bucks have the talent to win it all, but they need to find a way to shore up their defense. If they can’t, Lillard’s old problem could come back to haunt them when it matters most.