The numbers don't lie, and right now, they're screaming that Milwaukee has completely failed Giannis Antetokounmpo.
By Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), Giannis Antetokounmpo's supporting cast ranks just 26th among NBA teams, which is just behind several rebuilding squads. That's according to Tom Haberstroh and Dan Devine of Yahoo! Sports in a recent episode of The Big Number.
Let that sink in. Teams actively trying to lose have better rosters around their stars than the Bucks have around a two-time MVP in his prime.
The Bucks don't have the best roster around the Greek Freak right now
Let's cool our jets for a moment here. Bucks fans have known for a while now that the front office is betting on this roster to be more than just the sum of its parts. In some way, synergy will somehow make up for what they lack in talent. It's a prudent and valid bet because it's happened before. Just look at what guys like LeBron James have done with lesser rosters.
We also know that the cross to bear for any small market team like ours is for pundits and fans alike to do what they can to doubt these teams and drive our superstars out of town. This has been well-documented and established.
So no, we're not saying that can't happen. Because when you have this much spacing and youth around on All-World talent like Giannis Antetokounmpo, anything is possible.
But this is only just to say that the numbers, as it currently stands, simply do not look good. And while the big market bias in the media is what it is, those numbers also didn't come out of thin air.
They are projected by some to be a play-in team at best, maybe one missing the playoffs entirely at worst, in a crowded and competitive Eastern Conference. So while the Wisconsin faithful depends on its franchise player to deliver an MVP-level performance in the regular season, others aren't even pretending this roster can compete.
The supporting cast breakdown gets even uglier when you dig into the specifics. According to Dunks & Threes, nobody outside of Giannis, Myles Turner, and Bobby Portis has a positive EPM. That means every single other player on Milwaukee's roster projects as a net negative.
Think about what that means schematically. Giannis can't play 48 minutes and certainly can't play at an MVP level for all 82 games if he wants to conserve his energy ahead of the playoffs. Turner and Portis can't shoulder the entire frontcourt load. At some point in each game, Milwaukee has to put lineups on the floor that are statistically expected to get destroyed.
All it takes is a cursory look up and down the depth chart: Cole Anthony, Gary Harris, Kyle Kuzma, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr.: none of them move the needle positively according to these metrics. The Milwaukee Bucks assembled a roster full of names that sound decent on paper but produce nothing in reality without a superstar to buoy them.
Estimated plus/minus is, at the end of the day, an estimate, and it's entirely possible the Bucks end up proving their detractors wrong in a few months. But right now, the truth is it's not looking good.
Their low win projection isn't an insult. It's a warning. And based on the actual talent surrounding Giannis right now, it might even be generous.