Why the Bucks' offseason moves could spell trouble for Pat Connaughton

Pat Connaughton was an important piece of the Milwaukee Bucks 2021 NBA championship team.

So why, then, are many fans down on the shooting guard/small forward? For many fans, there seems to be a sense that he may be past his prime. For others, he is simply a nice bench player who can give the team an occasional boost when needed. 

The Bucks' roster has undergone quite a major offseason overhaul. Connaughton, like Bobby Portis, may feel like a player left over from the team's former identity. 

The signing of Gary Trent Jr., who is arguably more athletic than Connaughton, does not help with the idea that Connaughton could earn increased minutes this coming season. Something that is not arguable is that Trent is younger. That is going to be something that is going to be critical for a successful season. Youth coded as athleticism will be key for the Bucks.

Let's take a deeper dive and look at why the Bucks' offseason moves could spell trouble for Pat Connaughton in his role with the team.

Analyzing Pat Connaughton's fit with the Bucks

Connaughton saw some diminishing numbers in the 2023-2024 season. He played in 76 games and averaged 5.6 points per contest. His 3-point shooting was a little below his career average (34 percent vs. 35 percent).

During a press conference in April, Connaughton talked about how running strong set plays is key to his unlocking game.

Fortunately for the Milwaukee Bucks, they have a player who can do that well already on their roster. AJ Green could be a player who steps up.

Also, Gary Trent Jr. could be a player in a similar mold. One would have to think Trent could potentially be a starter on this team. There has not been much clamor for Connaughton to be a starter on this Milwaukee Bucks team next season.

The great news is the Bucks seem to be getting the shooting they've always craved to pair with Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The average age of the Milwaukee Bucks starting five is 31.4 years old. 

The average age of the Boston Celtics' starting five in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals (with 37-year-old Al Horford) was 30.4. The average age of the Indiana Pacers in that same game was 26 years old.

The Bucks have an older roster; they have always had an older roster. But what these other teams have that Milwaukee doesn’t have are younger guards and wings. Connaughton turns 32 during this upcoming season, which is in line with this club's makeup. 

Yet, this offseason, it seemed clear that Milwaukee was looking for athleticism coded as youth. 

Gary Trent Jr. and AJ Green might just be that.

Connaughton's early statistical projections

Like an old coach of mine used to say, “potential is just French for ain't proved nothin' yet.” So, it is easy to look at Connaughton's early season stat projections with a grain of salt. However, they don't look all that good. That is never a pleasant discovery.

Per Basketball Reference, he is projected to score 10.6 points per game with 2.9 assists in 2024-25 per 36 minutes. Also, according to that projection, Connaughton will shoot about six 3-point shots a game while only making two. He won't be playing 36 minutes, so these numbers can dip.

 For the soon-to-be 32 year old, that simply isn't good enough.

If the Bucks can get great shooting from Lillard, Trent and AJ Green, it would be easy to think that these offseason moves do not bode well for Connaughton's future in Milwaukee.

Then again, the Milwaukee Bucks can never have too much outside shooting!