Milwaukee Bucks: How salary cap projections affect them this offseason

PORTLAND, OR - NOVEMBER 6: (Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)
PORTLAND, OR - NOVEMBER 6: (Photo by Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images)

With the NBA soon to set the salary cap for the 2020-21 season, the Milwaukee Bucks are set to face quite the crunch going into a critical offseason.

So much remains unknown about the 2020-21 NBA season and when it will eventually begin.

For a Milwaukee Bucks team that is about to enter a critical offseason for so many obvious reasons, they are well versed in dealing with the unknown themselves. Whether we’ll see the start of the NBA season come near Christmas or Martin Luther King Jr. Day remains to be seen, some important decisions that will dictate this offseason are nearing on completion.

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The Athletic’s Shams Charania ($$) reported last week that the NBA and the NBPA are close on deciding the salary cap figures for next season, with the cap being projected at $109 million and the luxury tax line reportedly coming in at $132 million.

Again, those numbers aren’t yet fully guaranteed yet, as is the case with the plans for next season, but it is certainly a clear indication of where we’re heading towards trying to keep the financials as normal as they can be in the face of trying times. Especially as it resembles the same cap figures from the 2019-20 season.

What do the current salary cap projections mean for the Milwaukee Bucks as they embark on this massive offseason?

Just as they were last year, the Bucks are well over the cap and will be on the cusp of entering the luxury tax with $129 million committed on their books between salaries for current players, the 24th overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft and dead money.

That also accounts the player options of both Robin Lopez ($5 million and Wesley Matthews ($2.6 million), the $7 million salary that is currently non-guaranteed to Ersan Ilyasova and Sterling Brown’s $2 million qualifying offer heading into restricted free agency.

Given all of the talk revolving around whether the Bucks are set to enter the luxury tax just as co-owner Marc Lasry reportedly promised to Giannis Antetokounmpo, it was already appearing to be a formality with the numerous roster spots they had to address this fall and winter.

With no cap space and nearing on entering the tax threshold, the Bucks are limited to having the non-taxpayer $9.3 million midlevel exception and the $3.6 bi-annual exception at their disposal, along with being able to offer veteran minimum contracts to free agents.

Of note, the Bucks using their midlevel exception comes with significant implications, especially considering the luxury tax. Doing so would essentially hard cap the Bucks at the tax apron, which is usually set $6 million above the tax line. In this case, the apron is projected to be a $138.9 million for next season just as ESPN’s Bobby Marks ($$) predicted a couple of months back.

Should the Bucks enter tax and use some, if not all of their exceptions presented to them this offseason, the apron puts a ceiling on what ownership’s tax bill will look like for next year. That’s a significant thing to keep in mind, especially with big roster moves and/or upgrades that were reportedly promised to Antetokounmpo from that meeting between he and Lasry as reported by ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski back in September.

With the stakes at hand this offseason, it’s important to consider the finances and numbers at play when it comes to the Bucks’ salary cap and abilities to make the roster upgrades they need to contend for a title next season. We’ll soon see if further clarity is on the way when it comes to when we’ll see the return of Bucks basketball.