In his first season with the Nets, Michael Porter Jr. is having what is clearly a breakout campaign. He scores over 25 points per game, shoots the lights out from three, and is 6-foot-10. For the Milwaukee Bucks' small forward woes, Porter is an answer that sounds almost too good to be true.
It probably is. While the Bucks could certainly use Porter, they should exercise extreme caution in exploring him as an option. The Nets will want a haul in return. And are those numbers legit, coming as they do from the No. 1 option on a tanking roster?
Based on recent Nets trade history, one team gets the better end of the deal. It's the one peddling players whose stats ballooned in Brooklyn.
Nuggets know how this goes
The Denver Nuggets know a thing or two about that after flipping Porter and a 2032 first-rounder for Cam Johnson in the summer. No one expected Johnson to match his Nets numbers, but the dropoff has been drastic. Last season, Johnson averaged 18.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. On a title contender in Denver, those figures have dipped to 11.7, 3.7, and 2.2 in similar minutes. The Nuggets don't need him to be an alpha, and Johnson has been solid in his role, heating up after a sluggish start.
More important than a head-to-head comparison, Denver also gave up a coveted first-round pick. Would they do the deal again? In part, that pick compensated the Nets for taking on Porter's salary. It's also one of the most valuable in the league. Maybe calling the trade a scam is too harsh, but at the least, the Nuggets look like they overpaid in a big way.
That said, Porter is a tantalizing fit for the Bucks. He is the wing scorer the offense craves. He spaces the floor with a quick-trigger 3-point shot on high volume. On over nine attempts per game, Porter is converting at a 39.6 percent clip.
He is also a solid rebounder, a major need for the Bucks. Compare his 7.3 rebounds per game to 4.6 for Kyle Kuzma, Milwaukee's closest match for a small forward. While Porter isn't a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, his 7-foot wingspan allows him to close out on shooters and disrupt passing lanes.
But accurately evaluating his production is difficult. In Denver, Porter was a role player. For the Nets, he is option No. 1. Porter is attempting five more shots per game than in 2024-25 with the Nuggets. He has nearly doubled his modest free-throw rate to 4.5 attempts per game. His opportunities have been even higher with score-first guard Cam Thomas out since early November.
Porter's rebounding numbers are on par with his contributions in Denver. Impressively, so is his shooting efficiency despite a much larger workload. His 25.7 points per game, however, represent a 40 percent increase from last season. His assists are up to a career-high 3.2.
The Bucks must tread carefully. The Nets have pulled off this scheme before. NBA fans could never forget that the Knicks sent five first-round picks and a swap for Mikal Bridges two offseasons ago. Bridges has been excellent for New York, but he hasn't lived up to the investment. How could he?
Bucks must keep a tight fist around their first-round picks
The default package for Porter would revolve around Kyle Kuzma and Bobby Portis plus draft assets. For Kuzma and Portis alone, that deal would be a no-brainer. That's also a fantasy. At minimum, the Nets would almost certainly require Milwaukee's 2031 or 2032 first-rounder, probably unprotected. Those could be lottery selections.
For a team in Milwaukee's place, investing in Porter is a double-edged sword. Unlike Denver or New York, they aren't one or two pieces away from a title contender. Maybe Bridges pushes the Knicks over the hump. If the Nuggets win a title with Johnson, the overpay will be justified.
General manager Jon Horst loves swinging for the fences, but the Bucks aren't in that position. Burning a gold mine of a pick only to get bounced in the Play-In is not an acceptable result.
It's also true, though, that Porter's production might not plunge so dramatically in Milwaukee. Short on scorers, the Bucks would ask him to be some lesser version of what he's been for Brooklyn, at least until Giannis Antetokounmpo returns. That won't be for a while. The Bucks are desperate, and Porter could absolutely help keep them afloat. That kind of role wasn't available in Denver, and wouldn't be on another top-seeded contender this season, either.
Would adding Porter be enough, though? Let's assume he is far closer to his Nuggets self than the guy in a Nets jersey. He is under contract through 2026-27, when he will make $40 million. The Bucks would be unlikely to extend him.
As tempting as it is, they cannot let themselves be fooled by Porter's 22 games in Brooklyn. He isn't worth a premium pick plus a pair of solid rotation pieces. Just ask Denver fans how he has fared in the playoffs. And the Bucks are not on the cusp of another championship. With Porter at peak value, the Nets would probably want the house in return. Given how these deals have played out in the past, Milwaukee would be ill-advised to mortgage its future.