Previewing the Central Division: Time to Fear the Deer

In the fourth iteration of our Central Division preview, we look at the NBA’s most improved team of the 2014-15 season: The Milwaukee Bucks.

There’s a real buzz in the fall Wisconsin air. For the first time since the early 2000’s, there are real expectations and excitement surrounding the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Bucks are coming off their most successful season since the 2009-10 season, when they nearly beat the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs.

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Though they lost to the Bulls in six, the Bucks pushed the Bulls in nearly every game of the series, showing heart, determination, and potential.

No off-season in the team’s history was as important as this one. The Bucks were not only able to secure their long-term future in Milwaukee, they set the team up to seriously compete in the coming seasons.

First, the Bucks were able secure the future of guard/forward Khris Middleton within hours of free agency beginning. No player was as important to the Bucks success last season as Middleton.

Then, just hours after securing Middleton, the Bucks pulled off the coup of the summer by signing highly coveted big-man Greg Monroe.

Both moves ensure that the Bucks will field one of the Eastern Conference’s strongest starting fives this upcoming season.

The Bucks have average or better players at every starting position. Michael Carter-Williams is a project, but is already a solid distributor and defensive presence.

Khris Middleton is one of the best two way wing players in the NBA. He’s an elite perimeter defender who can knock down shots and create for himself.

Apr 23, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Khris Middleton (22) during game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Chicago Bulls at BMO Harris Bradley Center. Chicago won 113-106. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Giannis Antetokounmpo is also a duel threat. He can get to the basket without much effort and can defend both interior and perimeter threats. The Bucks defense works because of his ability.

With the addition of Greg Monroe, the Bucks added another player who can score in bunches and rebound above the league average.

The only major question mark is who will fill in the fifth starting spot. With Jabari Parker still recovering from his ACL injury, there’s a chance that the Bucks will take precautions in easing him back in, and therefore have an open spot in the rotation.

Greivis Vasquez may fill that role. Vasquez can stretch the floor and provide the Bucks with a second starter with above average passing. This would allow Middleton to slot into the three while Antetokounmpo would play at the four. This would play into everyone’s strengths on the offensive end since the Bucks would field three plus shooters from deep, and be able to play Antetokounmpo at his (currently) more natural position of Power Forward.

The Bucks may also turn to John Henson. Henson is an elite shot blocker and help defender. If the Bucks are playing a bigger team like the Bulls, they may elect to field Henson and Monroe together to match their size. He would provide the Bucks with a more defensive-minded starting five, but would definitely restrict the spacing of the offense.

In addition to their starting five, the Bucks also boast a solid bench. As stated, they already have two solid contributors in Vasquez and Henson. O.J Mayo is another solid option who can work off the ball and provide the Bucks with a solid sixth man scoring option.

The Bucks also have depth and positional flexibility. Miles Plumlee may see some solid minutes against bigger line-ups. Jerryd Bayless can play either guard position. Chris Copeland and Damien Inglis can also play multiple positions. This gives the Bucks a slew of options to choose from, allowing them to go more offensive or defensive depending on the situation.

One key to this season will be what kind of identity the Bucks choose. The Bucks were one of the NBA’s best on the defensive end last season. However, their offense lagged far behind, especially after the trade of Brandon Knight.

Knight provided the Bucks with a completely different style from that of Michael Carter-Williams. Knight is a score-first guard, relying on his ability to create his own shot and hitting threes to have success.

Season	Age	Tm	G	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P	3PA	3P%	FT	FT%	TRB	AST	STL	TOV	PTS
2013-14	22	MIL	72	33.3	6.4	15.2	.422	1.5	4.7	.325	3.6	.802	3.5	4.9	1.0	2.6	17.9
2014-15	23	MIL	52	32.5	6.2	14.3	.435	2.0	4.9	.409	3.3	.881	4.3	5.4	1.6	3.2	17.8
Career			276	32.4	5.5	13.1	.417	1.7	4.6	.365	2.6	.796	3.5	4.5	1.0	2.7	15.2

2 seasons		DET	141	31.9	4.8	11.7	.410	1.6	4.3	.373	1.9	.743	3.2	3.9	0.8	2.7	13.1
2 seasons		MIL	124	33.0	6.3	14.8	.427	1.7	4.8	.361	3.5	.832	3.8	5.1	1.2	2.9	17.9
1 season		PHO	11	31.5	4.6	13.0	.357	1.9	6.1	.313	2.2	.828	2.1	4.5	0.5	2.1	13.4

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/28/2015.

This meshed well with the Bucks last season since very few players outside of Khris Middleton provided floor spacing or a consistent scoring threat.

Knight, however, was a questionable fit in the long-term. He was a below average distributor, providing more of a benefit with his scoring than with his passing. With Parker and Middleton factoring into the team’s long-term plans, it’s questionable whether the Bucks needed another score first player.

This is where Michael Carter-Williams comes in.

Though he and the team struggled initially after the trade, Carter-Williams did improve significantly in the final games of the regular season. This success carried over into the Eastern Conference Playoffs as well.

Carter-Williams provides the Bucks with many skills that Knight did not. First, he’s a solid distributor of the ball, showing a natural ability to find his guy in the right situation. He did turn the ball over a lot after being traded. However, much of this can be attributed to his teammates dropping passes or making mistakes on cuts.

With a full off-season to improve on his chemistry with his teammates, Carter-Williams should be able to cut back on his turnovers and improve on his assists.

This should mesh well with a team that is no longer lacking in scoring options. Middleton showed that he is an elite knock-down shooter. Monroe is also a solid offensive player, especially in the low post. Add Jabari Parker in the mix and suddenly the Bucks possess three above average scorers in their starting five.

Apr 27, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Michael Carter-Williams (5) drives to the basket against Chicago Bulls guard Derrick Rose (1) in game five of the first round of the 2015 NBA Playoffs at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

In addition to being an above average facilitator, Carter-Williams is also significantly better than Knight at rebounding and on defense. His defensive showing against Derrick Rose in the playoffs this past season really stood out.

If he can repeat his performances from that series on a more consistent basis, the Bucks will be looking at another good defender in an already sound line-up.

The key to Carter-Williams success this season will ultimately hinge on his ability to improve on his shot. Despite possessing many above-average skills, Carter-Williams is at the bottom of the league when it comes to jump shooting.

In a league which is predicated on floor-spacing, Carter-Williams will need to get near the league average from three if the Bucks are going to improve. He’s simply too limited right now to take full advantage of his skills

Another key to the Bucks success this coming season will be the play of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Antetokounmpo showed flashes of becoming an elite player this past season:

No player on the team, or in the NBA for that matter, has generated as much buzz as Antetokounmpo.

Much of this can be attributed to his athleticism. He possesses the physical tools that so few players have, blending length and athleticism with a solid understanding of the game.

He is, however, far from a finished product. He struggled with his shot from deep last season, hitting on just 15.9 percent of his shots from three. He also struggled to finish around the rim, especially in the playoff series against Chicago.

If Antetokounmpo is going to get near his enormous ceiling, he’ll need to improve in these two areas. He doesn’t necessarily have to become an elite three point shooter. Few players of his size are. However, he does need to develop an outside game which his opponents have to respect if he really wants to take advantage of his skills.

One alternative to the three may rest in his mid-range game. Antetokounmpo showed flashes from the mid-range this past season. If he can be slightly more consistent with it, defenders won’t be able to sag off of him, opening up the lane and giving him more abundant opportunities to score.

Antetokounmpo will also need to work on his defensive consistency. Though he made major improvements on defense last season, Antetokounmpo can be mentally taken out of a game when an opposing player goes after him. Keeping his emotions in check will be crucial.

The biggest key to the Bucks success, however, will be the health and play of Jabari Parker.

The Bucks were able to go 41-41 last season, despite missing Jabari Parker for 3/4ths of the season. If Parker can come back at 100%, he’ll significantly improve an already strong Bucks squad.

Dec 7, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Jabari Parker (12) dunks the ball during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks defeated the Bucks 125-102. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

He showed flashes of being a solid mid-range shooter last season. He’s also supremely talented in the post and at creating his own shot. Few players at such a young age have shown such diversity in their offensive game.

If Parker can match the success that made him the second overall pick, the Bucks will become a legitimate title threat in the not-so-distant future.

The Bucks should be in the thick of the Central Division race this coming season. They possess a young core which will only get better with experience.

They also were one of the few teams to not face significant departures in player and/or coaching this off-season. Though Indiana and Chicago possess tremendous talent, both face uncertain futures this coming season. Detroit is also a few years away from serious contention. This should open the door for the Bucks to surpass their division rivals.

The only team better positioned than the Bucks is Cleveland. They retained their big three and added depth to their bench. As long as things don’t implode, Cleveland should win north of 60 games this coming season.

The Bucks won’t pass Cleveland. However, they will be in the thick of the race for a top five seed in the Eastern Conference.

Prediction: Record 52-30 (2nd in the Central Division).

Next: The Milwaukee Bucks Could Start Season 9-0

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